Trader FX G10/EM morning views


EUR - best wild and jerky describes price action yesterday and we sat in the middle of the 1.3250/1.3400 range. Feels like these lvls are well defined and clear break and another will continue further. Right now to try and play in these sectors to 1.3335/40 then 1.3370 sell topside areas - drawback 1.3367 (yesterdays low) then the 1.3250 button. Bias is always buy dips but after happy to wait and be flexible for the moment.

GBP - BOE minutes and data on the market of the labour force at 09: 30. Cable on his knees and the EUR/GBP back above 0.8400 post-session nasty chop yesterday. The Germany market rumours proved to be unfounded but were enough to outline the position on the EUR crosses market and so xxx/JPY liquidation, it was enough to set the EUR slip. So, today, I expect more nervous and erratic price action. GBP/JPY, currently looking at this level 136.40 but cable sees demand of profit-takers before 1.5800 at the moment. I don't expect any massive impact of minutes today, but perhaps slightly tilted on the side too consensual risks. All voting members the long side km additional QE or discussion on additional policy tools will be considered as negative GBP. I am still waiting to play sterling on the short side. Levels of cable: resistance, 1.5865, 1.5683 and 1.5909. Support: 1.5800, 1.5780 and 1.5746. Resistance of the EUR/GBP: 0.8416, 0.8440 and then 0.8506. Support: 0.8386, 0.8366, 0.8355 and 0.8325.

JPY – turn a deeper correction along the rumor sells the post is BOJ. Never, we have managed to resume field above the break at 89.00 lvl late yesterday and despite settled since the mid morning quick sale we saw a further reduction of USD/JPY and x'jpy long lever and community specifications. Key support is now this 87.80 lvl that there is so much on the dip below 87.45 and then 86.82 (depressions years) key last week. I do not think that it is a correction and that we should begin to find support once again 87.50/86.80 area, yet once again looking to buy dips against these lvls accordingly. Slice in the short term, the resistance is 88.35, 88.60 but only a break back above 89.00 will display the recent sale is complete.

AUD/NZD - AUD quickly became a little change. Internal weakening d├ęcor is offset by the quest for performance - as the AUD is stuck and not moving no where fast. I have trouble to see a catalyst, in fact I thought last nights data CPI could be one, but the price action message paints a markedly different picture. I have no opinion on AUD here, even the Exchange through the cross becomes somewhat futile because it remains fairly static agst the USD. Order book, stripping some interest for sale topside round 1.0560-80 with nothing below until we see a few stops through 1.0510/00. Not much better NZD, we are now at the bottom of AUDNZD 1.2520 - 1.2600 trading then go a little long with the cutting edge down through the figure on maps. I do not have a strong belief here, just stick with ranges up to broken. NZD main levels are 0.8440 and then 0.8480, not much above to get excited about.

CAD - decent two-way in USDCAD yesterday, to the departure of the most RM sales had us take a look at 0.9915 first, before some strength USD in all areas took us to 0.9945 (near high Fridays), and then leveraged names sell EURCAD broad resistance 1.3250 we were back to 0.9920 cramped. It is the Customs office today and I think that there is still a good story to tell about the CAD and thus sitting short USDCAD looking for a test of 0.9880 and then finally 0.9830 where these offers Corp. held company last week. I think that rates remain unchanged, but the economic forecasts support and direction of the rate should kick I hope things back. AUDCAD also quite nice levels resembling short re against 1.0500/20, IPC AUD a touch on the sweet side helping this night but pure CAD focus today, runs some AUDCAD as USDCAD at night. BoC 15: 00 this afternoon. Resistance 0.9950 1.0030 1.0000.

SCANDIES - EURSEK feels like it wants to break higher with offers decent apparently about 8.6650/6600 and then the 50, 100 and 200 dma all between 8.64 and 8.60 therefore always happy to be long pressed against these support levels. Having said that it be clearly break above 8.72 for any other higher test. Ekholm in the context mentioned in the Swedish newspapers this morning saying it is "a little room for further reductions", that can get traction this morning. Sitting a long time some NOKSEK which took place 1.1620/00 press several times now and will seek to buy the break of 8.72 in EURSEK if we see it. Right EURNOK had a sneaky high figure 4 move lower yesterday, we saw the business selling EURNOK on 7.43 break and some model lafourniturede USDNOK about 5.58, should also be more shutdowns through 7.40 and then people seeking to buy about 7.38 I still think it makes sense in terms of playing the range endsunless we see a big break more NOKSEK. EURSEK support: 8.64 8.60 8.55 resistance 8.72 8.75 8.80. EURNOK support: 7.40 7.38 7.32 resistance: 7.46 7.48 7.50.


Barclays Capital

categoriesTrades Forex | January 23, 2013 |


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